Days 1-14 are a real forecast from global weather models. Days 15-30 are season-typical values based on SMHI climate normals 1991-2020 — good for planning, NOT an exact forecast that far ahead.
30 days — Örnsköldsvik
14 real + 16 synthesised
Thu · Today Thunderstorm
+21°+14°8,2 mm
Fri · Tomorrow Showers
+21°+12°9,3 mm
Saturday 1/8 Clear
+19°+9°5%
Sunday 2/8 Partly cloudy
+19°+10°3,1 mm
Monday 3/8 Partly cloudy
+17°+9°8%
Tuesday 4/8 Partly cloudy
+18°+11°0,6 mm
Wednesday 5/8 Clear
+19°+9°5%
Thursday 6/8 Clear
+18°+9°7%
Friday 7/8 Partly cloudy
+17°+10°7%
Saturday 8/8 Clear
+18°+8°4%
Sunday 9/8 Clear
+18°+8°4%
Monday 10/8 Clear
+18°+10°5%
Tuesday 11/8 Partly cloudy
+18°+12°0,5 mm
Wednesday 12/8 Partly cloudy
+19°+13°2,5 mm
Thursday 13/8 Rain (climate normal)
+17°+7°6,8 mm
Friday 14/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+21°+10°20%
Saturday 15/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+22°+10°20%
Sunday 16/8 Rain (climate normal)
+20°+10°7,7 mm
Monday 17/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+18°+8°20%
Tuesday 18/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+15°+6°20%
Wednesday 19/8 Rain (climate normal)
+18°+8°6,6 mm
Thursday 20/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+19°+9°20%
Friday 21/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+19°+9°20%
Saturday 22/8 Rain (climate normal)
+20°+9°7,0 mm
Sunday 23/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+20°+9°20%
Monday 24/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+17°+7°20%
Tuesday 25/8 Rain (climate normal)
+15°+6°6,6 mm
Wednesday 26/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+17°+7°20%
Thursday 27/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+20°+9°20%
Friday 28/8 Rain (climate normal)
+19°+9°6,2 mm
How does the long-range forecast work?
Days 1-14: Fetched live from global weather models (ECMWF, GFS) with statistical correction. Reliability ~85% for days 1-3, ~60% for days 7-10, ~45% for days 11-14.
Days 15-30: A real forecast does not exist that far ahead (a chaotic system). Instead we show season-typical values: the month’s average Tmax/Tmin from SMHI climate normals 1991-2020 (Stockholm baseline with latitude correction for Örnsköldsvik), with mild weekly variation.
Use: "Roughly how warm is it usually in Stockholm in the last week of July?" — a good question for days 15-30. "Will it rain on 27 May?" — no serious forecast can say.