Days 1-14 are a real forecast from global weather models. Days 15-30 are season-typical values based on SMHI climate normals 1991-2020 — good for planning, NOT an exact forecast that far ahead.
30 days — Gävle
14 real + 16 synthesised
Thu · Today Clear
+30°+16°3,3 mm
Fri · Tomorrow Clear
+25°+16°0,3 mm
Saturday 1/8 Clear
+23°+11°2%
Sunday 2/8 Clear
+23°+11°3%
Monday 3/8 Clear
+23°+10°4%
Tuesday 4/8 Clear
+21°+8°4%
Wednesday 5/8 Clear
+23°+9°17%
Thursday 6/8 Showers
+20°+12°3,5 mm
Friday 7/8 Partly cloudy
+24°+10°5%
Saturday 8/8 Drizzle
+16°+11°13,6 mm
Sunday 9/8 Partly cloudy
+17°+10°17%
Monday 10/8 Partly cloudy
+19°+8°5%
Tuesday 11/8 Partly cloudy
+18°+7°5%
Wednesday 12/8 Clear
+20°+7°3%
Thursday 13/8 Rain (climate normal)
+20°+10°6,4 mm
Friday 14/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+22°+11°20%
Saturday 15/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+22°+11°20%
Sunday 16/8 Rain (climate normal)
+21°+11°8,8 mm
Monday 17/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+20°+10°20%
Tuesday 18/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+19°+9°20%
Wednesday 19/8 Rain (climate normal)
+19°+10°6,4 mm
Thursday 20/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+22°+11°20%
Friday 21/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+22°+11°20%
Saturday 22/8 Rain (climate normal)
+22°+12°8,8 mm
Sunday 23/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+20°+10°20%
Monday 24/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+21°+11°20%
Tuesday 25/8 Rain (climate normal)
+18°+9°8,4 mm
Wednesday 26/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+18°+9°20%
Thursday 27/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+20°+10°20%
Friday 28/8 Rain (climate normal)
+23°+12°6,6 mm
How does the long-range forecast work?
Days 1-14: Fetched live from global weather models (ECMWF, GFS) with statistical correction. Reliability ~85% for days 1-3, ~60% for days 7-10, ~45% for days 11-14.
Days 15-30: A real forecast does not exist that far ahead (a chaotic system). Instead we show season-typical values: the month’s average Tmax/Tmin from SMHI climate normals 1991-2020 (Stockholm baseline with latitude correction for Gävle), with mild weekly variation.
Use: "Roughly how warm is it usually in Stockholm in the last week of July?" — a good question for days 15-30. "Will it rain on 27 May?" — no serious forecast can say.